Since the escalation of conflict in the Middle East on 28 February, the critical Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to major container shipping. For shippers, the result is stranded cargo, congested ports, schedules in disarray and costly surcharges.
Read also: Hormuz Tensions Highlight a New Reality: Maritime Resilience Now Runs on Data and AI
Three Waves of Impact
The vessels impacted by the Middle East conflict can be categorized in three waves. Vessels already in or near the Persian Gulf when the conflict started have been forced to discharge at the nearest safe port. For these shippers with displaced cargo, the challenges now include customs clearance at unplanned ports and arranging inland transport from unfamiliar locations.
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Vessels that departed Asia before suspensions were announced are splitting cargo between transshipment hubs and ports closer to the region. The third wave of cargo is the bookings being made now, with mid-long term schedules already changing to utilize neighboring ports to the south and east of the Strait of Hormuz or being diverted on longer sailings.
Port Congestion Intensifies
The chaos caused by an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz means ports at the gateway to the Gulf are in a critical state due to the rapid increase in containers being offloaded. Khor Fakkan has been locked at 100% congestion for over 10 days. Sohar climbed from 67% on 28 February to 70%, with average delays peaking at a nine-fold increase over pre-crisis levels.
Congestion is also building along the Indian subcontinent. Karachi has risen from 14% to 63% over 12 days. Mundra is up 33 percentage points, while Nhava Sheva is running well above its normal range.
At major transshipment hubs further away, signals regarding congestion are diverging. Singapore has eased from 48% to 28%, Colombo has eased to 31% since a peak of 50% on March 12, while Tanjung Pelepas and Port Klang are trending upward.
Schedule Performance Deteriorates
Schedule performance data shows sharp deterioration in the first full week after the conflict began at key ports. At Mundra, on-time arrivals dropped from 44% to 31%, with more than one in three vessels arriving a week or more behind schedule. Nhava Sheva’s on-time rate collapsed from 50% to 33%. A moderation in subsequent weeks likely reflects carriers shortening rotations by omitting Gulf calls, rather than genuine improvement in underlying conditions.
Carrier Responses and Shipper Choices
Carriers are restructuring services far faster than they did during the Red Sea crisis. The carrier response includes three key approaches: outright suspensions, nearby relays at neighboring ports while omitting Gulf calls, and alternative routing via the Mediterranean.
Shippers now face a choice between two imperfect options. They can opt for shorter routing via neighboring ports where there is severe congestion, higher surcharges and less schedule certainty. Alternatively, they can choose longer routing via the Mediterranean and Cape of Good Hope, where there is more predictability but extended transit times and higher base rates.
For procurement teams, this means benchmarking every surcharge against market data. For finance, it means freight budget assumptions made even weeks ago may already need revising.
Of the 48 services on the Asia-Europe trade, 18 call at least one of the 14 countries within the immediate vicinity of conflict. The exposure also extends to any Asia-Europe or Far East-South America service that calls India, Sri Lanka, East Africa, or other neighboring ports being used as relay hubs. Ad hoc rerouting cascades through every subsequent port call on the string, affecting every shipper with cargo on that vessel.
