The Petroleum Division has raised concerns over a request by the Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) to further reduce RLNG cargoes for 2026, warning that additional cuts could conflict with agreed planning benchmarks and create operational disruptions, Business Recorder reported.
In a communication to the Power Division, Special Secretary Petroleum Mirza Nasiruddin Mashhood Ahmad referred to ISMO’s letter dated December 13, 2025, in which RLNG demand for the power sector for calendar year 2026 was revised downward once again.
Under the LNG Sale and Purchase Agreements (SPAs) with Qatar, the Annual Delivery Plan (ADP) must be finalised by October 15 for the following calendar year. The Petroleum Division said that RLNG volumes for 2026 had already been confirmed in line with the Integrated Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) during meetings co-chaired by the ministers for power and petroleum. These projections were also incorporated into the Wood Mackenzie study to determine Net Proceed Differential (NPD) cargo volumes.
The ADP for 2026 was finalised with QatarEnergy on November 30, 2025. However, ISMO’s subsequent revision proposes significant monthly changes that could result in a surplus of around 10 additional LNG cargoes beyond previously adjusted volumes.
The Petroleum Division maintains that further revisions at this stage are not feasible, as they would create a mismatch between IGCEP-based requirements and revised power-sector demand.
Officials warned that earlier demand adjustments have already caused operational strain, including high line pack pressures and curtailment of approximately 200 million cubic feet per day (MMCFD) of indigenous gas to maintain system stability. The division cautioned that continued reductions could risk damage to gas fields and reduce non-tax revenues for the government.
The Power Division has been advised to manage intra-day and inter-day demand fluctuations within a tolerance range of 5–10 percent and adhere to previously agreed volumes.
Separately, the federal cabinet has approved diversion of between 24 and 29 surplus LNG cargoes from Qatar under the NPD mechanism for 2026 due to declining gas demand, mainly from the power sector. The surplus has posed financial and operational challenges for Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL).
Earlier, Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL) and Eni sold 11 surplus cargoes during 2025 under NPD arrangements, while five Qatar-sourced cargoes were deferred through negotiations by the Petroleum Division and Pakistan State Oil (PSO).
Projections indicate that around 177 additional cargoes could become surplus between July 2025 and December 2031, equivalent to roughly 24 cargoes per year. SNGPL and PSO have recommended engaging QatarEnergy for rescheduling, reducing committed volumes or increasing power-sector offtake.
