06 Feb 2026by Craig Jallal
International Grains Council forecast put soya bean trade at 206M tonnes by 2031, with Brazil accounting for more than 60% of exports
The International Grains Council forecast, Five-year baseline projections of supply and demand (2030/31), puts global soya bean trade on a rising path through to 2031, with demand growth centred on Asia and Brazil retaining the largest export share, a combination that implies higher soya bean dry bulk shipping cargoes and derivatives.
In its five-year baseline projections of supply and demand, the Council stated, “Trade is projected to grow to consecutive records, with China’s share of the world total at about 60%; Brazil will remain the pre-eminent supplier.”
It added that “shipment flows are anticipated to rise in each subsequent year, with volumes reaching 206M tonne by 2031.”
On the supply side, the Council projected that global soya bean output would reach successive highs, supported by a harvested area expansion and assumed yield gains.
It also projected productivity to increase from 2.9 tonnes per hectare (ha) in 2026 to reach 3.0 tonnes per ha in 2031.
On the demand side, the Council projected successive highs in utilisation to 471M tonnes by 2031, while stating that an average annual growth rate of about 2% would represent slower growth than in the prior five years.
It linked the increase to a higher use of processed products, such as biodiesel and renewable diesel production in the US and Brazil.
On shipping demand, the forecast placed China at the centre of the trade expansion.
The Council predicted at total deliveries to China are expected to rise by a net 17M tonnes to 130M tonnes in 2031.
Trade to the Far East Asia is also predicted to move comfortably above 150M tonnes during the next five years, making up close to 75% of global flows.
Brazil is projected to supply just 60% of global flows, creating a sustained concentration of ship-linked export corridors into Asia.
Sign up for Riviera’s series of technical and operational webinars and conferences:
