{"id":92451,"date":"2026-02-17T18:50:24","date_gmt":"2026-02-17T21:50:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shipping.einnews.com\/article\/893166868\/77x7D0KjTgQpmR00"},"modified":"2026-02-17T18:50:24","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T21:50:24","slug":"gulf-carriersa-will-absorb-half-of-all-new-air-cargo-capacity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/2026\/02\/17\/gulf-carriersa-will-absorb-half-of-all-new-air-cargo-capacity\/","title":{"rendered":"Gulf carriers\u00c2\u00a0will absorb half of all new air cargo capacity"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"dreamstime_s_100337116\" <\/p>\n

Photo: \u00a9 Giovanni Gagliardi <\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

\n
By Alex Lennane<\/a><\/address>\n

Air cargo capacity is set to grow faster than demand in 2026 \u2013 and much of that new lift will be concentrated in the Gulf.<\/span><\/p>\n

That is the assessment of Aevean\u2019s Marco Bloemen, who<\/span> said the industry continued to focus on aircraft orders, but the more important metric was what actually gets delivered.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIn 2019, manufacturers delivered around 340 widebody passenger aircraft,\u201d he said. \u201cLast year, that number was roughly half.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2024, widebody output collapsed to 167 passenger aircraft and around 50 freighters, far below pre-pandemic numbers. Narrowbody production, meanwhile, surged to more than 1,100 aircraft, up from around 800 in 2019.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThey are building narrowbodies, which is fine for the passenger market,\u201d Mr Bloemen said, \u201cbut narrowbodies don\u2019t add long-haul cargo capacity.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

By mid-February, just 13 widebody aircraft had been delivered: five freighters and eight passenger aircraft, and Mr Bloeman added: <\/span>\u201cSo far, deliveries look very similar to what we saw last year.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Freighter aircraft remain the main source of incremental cargo capacity.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe forecasted 35 freighter deliveries last year, and that\u2019s exactly what happened,\u201d Mr Bloemen said. \u201cFor 2026, we expect something similar.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Those aircraft accounted for most of last year\u2019s growth in dedicated cargo capacity.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, longer-term the picture could change: regulatory changes affecting Boeing\u2019s 777 programme could halt production beyond 2027 unless exemptions are granted.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf the rules do not change, there will be no Boeing 777s being delivered in 2027 and 2028,\u201d Mr Bloemen warned. \u201cFor 2026, the aircraft already ordered will still be delivered \u2013 but watch that space.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Perhaps the most striking data point concerns geography.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Source: Aevean<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u201cIf you add up the capacity we expect to be delivered in 2026, roughly half of it is going to Middle East operators,\u201d Mr Bloemen said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Based on Aevean\u2019s projections, some 1.7m tonnes of new widebody capacity is destined for the Middle East and South Asia, compared with roughly 0.7m tonnes for Europe and 0.6m tonnes for North America.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s a serious number,\u201d he said. \u201cHalf of all new capacity going into one region.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Source: Aevean<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

And this shift is already visible in route data. <\/span>Year-to-date international capacity is running about 10% above last year, though Mr Bloemen cautioned that Chinese New Year timing distorted the comparison.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even so, structural trends are clear: capacity between Asia and the Gulf is up roughly 22%, Asia-Europe around 20%, while China-North America capacity has declined slightly.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Source: Aevean<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re basically seeing capacity out of China and Hong Kong being deployed to the Middle East and to Europe,\u201d he said. \u201cCapacity follows the business.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Mr Bloemen said much of the new lift originated in Asia, particularly China and Hong Kong, creating backhaul pressure, but, he added: \u201cT<\/span>hose aircraft also have to fly back.\u201d<\/p>\n

On strong outbound lanes, additional capacity will likely be absorbed. The issue lies in the return legs, he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe moment you add more capacity out of China and Hong Kong, the more difficult it becomes to fill it on the way back,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

But he does not expect a collapse in volumes.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt won\u2019t be a bad year in terms of tonnes,\u201d he said. \u201cOn the strong legs, they will fill it.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

But financially, the picture is less certain.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cYou have to look at pricing and cost. Fuel will matter. That\u2019s a different story,\u201d he added.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mr Bloemen believes the key trends from 2025 will continue into 2026: ecommerce shifts, data centre traffic, tariff effects and aircraft delivery constraints.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe data centre business is not over. Ecommerce is not over. Aircraft deliveries will still happen,\u201d he said. \u201cAll those trends continue.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

But with capacity expanding faster than demand, the centre of gravity is shifting.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not demand that will define 2026,\u201d Mr Bloemen said. \u201cIt\u2019s capacity \u2013 and where it\u2019s being added.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

And right now, much of that addition is flowing through the Gulf.<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n

Next, Aevean on demand for the year <\/em><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

… /02/2026 Air cargo<\/span> capacity is set to grow … don\u00e2\u0080\u0099t add long-haul cargo<\/span> capacity.\u00e2\u0080\u009d By mid-February, just … \u00c2\u00a0the main source of incremental cargo<\/span> capacity. \u00e2\u0080\u009cWe forecasted 35 freighter … year\u00e2\u0080\u0099s growth in dedicated cargo<\/span> capacity. However, longer-term the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-92451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92451","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=92451"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92451\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=92451"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=92451"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=92451"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}