{"id":89856,"date":"2026-02-15T13:53:18","date_gmt":"2026-02-15T16:53:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shipping.einnews.com\/article\/892581381"},"modified":"2026-02-15T13:53:18","modified_gmt":"2026-02-15T16:53:18","slug":"analysisus-warning-to-american-vessels-puts-global-shipping-on-edge-in-strait-of-hormuz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/2026\/02\/15\/analysisus-warning-to-american-vessels-puts-global-shipping-on-edge-in-strait-of-hormuz\/","title":{"rendered":"AnalysisUS warning to American vessels puts global shipping on edge in Strait of Hormuz"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

The US issued an advisory<\/a> last Monday to American-flagged ships, asking them to avoid Iranian territory when passing through the Strait of Hormuz<\/a>. <\/p>\n

The warning has led to intensified scrutiny throughout the global shipping industry, though markets have yet to react sharply. <\/p>\n

The US accounts for only a small fraction of global commercial shipping \u2013 particularly in container trades \u2013 but analysts say the move has wider implications for non-US operators that dominate Gulf trade flows, as most vessels transiting Hormuz are owned or operated by foreign firms. <\/p>\n

Iran poses a \u201ccredible threat\u201d<\/a> to shipping if hostilities break out, says Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at shipping association Bimco. With advanced weapons systems across nearby waters, the risk to commercial vessels is real, he says.<\/p>\n

\n

There is no alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz<\/p>\n

Jakob Larsen,
chief safety and security officer, Bimco<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u201cAs demonstrated by Iran in the past, any shipping operation with business or personal links to Israel or US risks being targeted,\u201d he tells The National<\/i>. “Add to that the omnipresent risk of being targeted due to misidentification and it becomes clear that all ships will be at risk if hostilities break out.”<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is no alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz,” he adds. “We have seen around a 50 per cent drop in numbers of ships going through the Bab Al Mandeb strait and the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks in connection with the Israeli military operation in Gaza. These ships have indeed rerouted south of Cape of Good Hope.\u201d<\/p>\n

Risk \u2018always there\u2019<\/b><\/h2>\n

For credit analysts, the strategic importance of Hormuz has never diminished. Alexander Perjessy, vice president and senior credit officer at Moody\u2019s Ratings, says risk is \u201calways there\u201d. The advisory does not materially change the underlying risk environment, he says. <\/p>\n

\u201cIn our view, the risk has not changed, it\u2019s always been there,\u201d Mr Perjessy says, describing the Strait of Hormuz as one of the key transmission channels through which geopolitical tension can affect credit fundamentals across the region.<\/p>\n

Disruption to shipping traffic through the strait remains a low-probability but high-impact event. <\/p>\n

Mr Perjessy adds that the strait represents one of the few strategic levers Iran could use in response to escalating pressure from the US and its allies, including over Tehran\u2019s nuclear programme.<\/p>\n

Tension is simmering between the US and Iran<\/a>. Washington sent an “armada” to the Middle East in response to a government crackdown on protests in Iran. Concerns are high that the US might launch another attack on Tehran.<\/p>\n

Earlier this month, US forces shot down an Iranian drone it said had ventured too close to the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft \u200dcarrier<\/a> \u200din the \u2060Arabian Sea.<\/p>\n

Amid the tension, Iran and the US have held talks on the future of Tehran’s nuclear programme. US President Donald Trump, who ordered strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure in June last year, described the negotiations in Oman as “very good”.<\/p>\n

The Strait of Hormuz is a major route for shipping in the Middle East, particularly for tankers carrying oil around the world. Iran has threatened to close the waterway during times of high geopolitical tension.<\/p>\n

Structurally, the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world\u2019s most critical chokepoints. If tension between the US and Iran heightens<\/a>, non-US shipping companies could be directly affected \u2013 through security threats, potential sanctions or sharp swings in freight rates.<\/p>\n

The US Department of Transportation has advised vessels to assert their rights under international law and decline Iranian forces permission to board, but to avoid resisting should they be boarded. To avoid such issues, it warned vessels to steer clear of Iranian waters “without compromising navigational safety”.<\/p>\n

Iranian forces used small boats and helicopters during boarding operations and have attempted to force commercial vessels in the country’s territorial waters, the US Department of Transportation said on February 9.<\/p>\n

Using hybrid routes<\/b><\/h2>\n

As a result of the advisory, ship operators are also using hybrid routes, with a combination of sea and air routes, to avoid sensitive regions. \u201cSome supertanker operators, nervous about rising US-Iran tensions and potential risks to shipping in the waterway, are speeding their vessels through the chokepoint,\u201d Junaid Ansari, director of Investment Strategy and Research at Kamco Invest, tells The National<\/i>.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn addition, shipping companies are increasing the use of AI-driven, real-time analytics to monitor threats and predict risks to container ships, allowing for rapid, proactive route changes.”<\/p>\n

Operationally, companies have already adapted to years of geopolitical friction \u2013 adjusting insurance premiums, factoring higher freight rates into contracts and investing in real-time analytics to monitor threats, Mr Ansari says. <\/p>\n

For non-US shipping firms, he argues, the greater concern may not be physical security but sanctions exposure.<\/p>\n

\u201cWorry comes more from a sanctions perspective rather than from a security perspective,\u201d Mr Ansari says. \u201cWe believe that shipping firms would be cautious in taking any step that would risk a sanction from the US \u2026 [and that] oil shipments will not be impacted as this will escalate to include even other producers in the region.\u201d<\/p>\n

Container flows steady … for now<\/b><\/h2>\n

In the container sector, meanwhile, there has been no immediate operational shift.<\/p>\n

Peter Sand, chief analyst at freight pricing platform Xeneta, says geopolitical risks are \u201cever present\u201d for shippers, carriers and forwarders, \u201cthese days more than ever before\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cA risk like this should not be ignored,\u201d he points out. \u201cBut all maritime businesses working in the Middle East region are used to operating under elevated levels of risk.\u201d<\/p>\n

Data from Xeneta shows container shipping services and capacity into the Arabian Gulf and upper Indian Ocean remain unaffected so far. Capacity from China to the UAE \u2013 a trade route that transits the Strait of Hormuz \u2013 has been rising since November 2025. Since early this year, supply has outpaced demand, pushing short-term average freight rates down from $2,700 to $1,540 per 12-metre equivalent unit.<\/p>\n

Mr Sand, however, warns that the situation could change quickly if uncertainty escalates.<\/p>\n

Importantly, the vast majority of container shipowners and operators are non-US entities, meaning any material shift in capacity or pricing would be driven largely by European and Asian shipowners, rather than Americans. For now, they are holding course. But that could change quickly if tension escalates, warns Mr Sand.<\/p>\n

What of shipping costs?<\/b><\/h2>\n

With non-US operators rerouting around alternative paths such as the wider Gulf of Oman routes or the Cape of Good Hope, shipping costs are set to soar, Mr Ansari says. <\/p>\n

\u201cThis will definitely increase shipping costs, but this issue has been there since the start of the geopolitical conflicts in the region,\u201d he tells The National<\/i>. “And shipping companies have adjusted costs, insurance premiums and vessel capacity expansions to deal with the situation.”<\/p>\n

According to Mr Larsen of Bimco, during the war between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s, oil kept flowing out of the Arabian Gulf despite several attacks on tankers \u2026 and with that in mind, the most likely scenario is \u201cprobably that some shipowners will opt out of the trade\u201d in and out of the Arabian Gulf. \u201cAnd when this happens, the usual supply and demand dynamics will kick in and drive up the freight rates,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, amid all the tension, the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) says its priority is ensuring seafarers\u2019 lives are not affected by regional instability.<\/p>\n

<\/section>\n

The body acknowledged the US advisory and urged ships sailing in the region to conduct thorough risk assessments and maintain vigilance in line with established maritime security guidelines, while monitoring updates from official channels.<\/p>\n

For now, global shipping appears to be maintaining course, balancing caution with commercial necessity. But with about a fifth of the world\u2019s oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz, even a remote threat commands attention. <\/p>\n

\u201cAs a global industry, shipping depends on the continued safety and stability of this vital maritime corridor,\u201d says John Stawpert, principal director of marine at ICS, which is \u201cclosely monitoring the situation\u201d while ensuring the secure flow of international trade.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

… intensified scrutiny throughout the global shipping<\/span> industry, though markets have yet … \u00e2\u0080\u0093 adjusting insurance premiums, factoring higher freight<\/span> rates into contracts and investing … Peter Sand, chief analyst at freight<\/span> pricing platform Xeneta, says geopolitical …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-89856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89856","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=89856"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89856\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=89856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=89856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=89856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}