{"id":112911,"date":"2026-03-06T06:48:29","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T09:48:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shipping.einnews.com\/article\/897592446"},"modified":"2026-03-06T06:48:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T09:48:29","slug":"sparta-comments-on-a-comments-on-freight-refining-margins-and-hormuz-disruption","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/2026\/03\/06\/sparta-comments-on-a-comments-on-freight-refining-margins-and-hormuz-disruption\/","title":{"rendered":"Sparta comments on a comments on freight, refining margins, and Hormuz disruption"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Neil Crosby, AVP Oil Analytics at Sparta, Michael Ryan, Freight Commodity Owner at Sparta, and Philip Jones-Lux, Senior Analyst for Sparta, comment on freight, refining margins, and Hormuz disruption.<\/p>\n

“Even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes partially, the oil market would still face significant disruption. \u201cThe idea that things return to normal once ships start moving again is misleading,\u201d said Neil Crosby, AVP Oil Analytics at Sparta. \u201cEven if the Strait operates at around 80% of normal capacity, that still represents a huge logistical shock for the global oil system.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of the world\u2019s seaborne oil trade. Any reduction in traffic creates immediate bottlenecks across freight, refining supply chains, and regional crude balances. <\/p>\n

\u201cAt 80% flow you are still effectively removing millions of barrels per day from the system in practical terms,\u201d Crosby said. \u201cInsurance constraints, naval escorts, delays, and rerouting all slow the movement of crude. That pushes up freight rates, widens regional spreads, and forces refiners to compete harder for available barrels.\u201d<\/p>\n

The disruption would be felt most acutely in Asia, which relies heavily on Gulf crude supplies to keep refineries running. Many refineries hold only limited crude inventories, meaning delays in tanker arrivals can quickly translate into lower refinery runs and tighter product markets.<\/p>\n

\u201cEven if Hormuz reopens partially, the market still has to deal with the damage already done,\u201d Crosby added. \u201cInfrastructure outages, refinery attacks and wellhead shut-ins across the region will take time to reverse. The supply chain disruption doesn\u2019t disappear the moment ships start sailing again.\u201d<\/p>\n

As a result, Crosby expects volatility to remain elevated even under a scenario where shipping gradually resumes.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe market is not just pricing the closure of Hormuz,\u201d he said. \u201cIt is pricing the cumulative damage to infrastructure and logistics across the region. That means prices, freight rates and refining margins could remain under pressure for weeks, even if traffic through the Strait begins to recover.\u201d<\/p>\n

Freight market<\/h5>\n

\u201cThe freight market is reacting less to the physical closure of routes and more to the uncertainty around them,\u201d said Michael Ryan, Freight Commodity Owner at Sparta.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn the early stages of the crisis the tanker market essentially froze. Charterers and owners struggled to price voyages because insurance, security conditions and loading schedules were all unclear. That created a temporary paralysis in fixtures.\u201d<\/p>\n

As trading activity resumes, the bigger structural shift is the redirection of crude and product flows away from the Gulf.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat we\u2019re already seeing is a move toward longer-haul supply chains,\u201d Ryan said. \u201cRefiners that normally source from the Middle East are looking instead to the Atlantic Basin – the US Gulf Coast, West Africa and the North Sea.\u201d<\/p>\n

Those alternative routes dramatically increase tonne-mile demand, the key driver of tanker earnings. <\/p>\n

\u201cA voyage that might normally take 10\u201315 days can suddenly become a month-long round trip,\u201d Ryan said. <\/p>\n

\u201cThat ties up ships for longer and effectively removes available vessels from the market.\u201d<\/p>\n

As a result, tanker markets may remain elevated even if geopolitical conditions stabilise.<\/p>\n

\u201cOnce the trade map stretches, freight stays tight,\u201d Ryan added. \u201cEven if the crisis cools quickly, the disruption to shipping patterns and vessel availability could keep rates elevated for some time.\u201d<\/p>\n

Refining margins<\/h5>\n

\u201cThe market is now entering a phase where prices need to start rationing demand,\u201d said Phil Jones-Lux, Senior Analyst for Sparta.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf crude flows remain constrained, even partially, the system will struggle to keep refineries running at normal rates, particularly in Asia.\u201d<\/p>\n

Many Asian refiners depend heavily on Gulf crude, and any sustained disruption quickly translates into refinery run cuts.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen crude supply becomes uncertain, refiners have two options: pay almost any price for available barrels or reduce throughput,\u201d Jones-Lux said.<\/p>\n

The pressure is already visible in refined product markets, particularly in jet fuel and middle distillates.<\/p>\n

\u201cJet is the first place the system breaks,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s largely straight-run from crude and difficult to store, which means supply shortages show up there very quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n

As a result, refining margins and product spreads may need to rise further to rebalance the market. <\/p>\n

\u201cUltimately the market has to do two things at once: encourage any available refining capacity to run harder while also destroying some demand,\u201d Jones-Lux said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s why we\u2019re seeing such extreme moves in cracks and regrades. They\u2019re the market\u2019s way of rationing scarce supply.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Read the article online at: https:\/\/www.hydrocarbonengineering.com\/special-reports\/05032026\/sparta-comments-on-a-comments-on-freight-refining-margins-and-hormuz-disruption\/<\/small><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

… on freight<\/span>, refining margins, and Hormuz disruption. "Even if shipping<\/span> through … Strait begins to recover.\u00e2\u0080\u009d Freight<\/span> market \u00e2\u0080\u009cThe freight<\/span> market is reacting less to … crisis cools quickly, the disruption to shipping<\/span> patterns and vessel availability could …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-112911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112911","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=112911"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/112911\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=112911"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=112911"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=112911"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}