{"id":107779,"date":"2026-03-01T22:49:10","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T01:49:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shipping.einnews.com\/article\/896740879"},"modified":"2026-03-01T22:49:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T01:49:10","slug":"red-sea-shipping-hopes-derailed-after-strikes-on-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/2026\/03\/01\/red-sea-shipping-hopes-derailed-after-strikes-on-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"Red Sea Shipping Hopes Derailed After Strikes on Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"

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A joint military operation by the United States and Israel against targets in Iran on February 28 \u2014 followed by retaliatory action \u2014 has sharply escalated tensions in the Middle East, casting serious doubt on any large-scale return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026.<\/p>\n

Read also: Red Sea Disruptions, Panama Canal Constraints, and Their Long-Term Effects on Global Trade Routes<\/a><\/p>\n

According to Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand, the renewed conflict will likely intensify the \u201cweaponization\u201d of trade and force carriers to maintain diversions around the Cape of Good Hope rather than resume Suez Canal transits.<\/p>\n

Carriers had cautiously begun restoring select east\u2013west services via the Suez Canal after rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope since late 2023 due to attacks by Iran-backed Houthi forces in the Red Sea. That tentative shift now appears set to reverse.<\/p>\n

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\u201cIf Houthi militia resume attacks, carriers will once again prioritize the safety of crew, ships, and cargo,\u201d Sand said, warning that any phased normalization through the Red Sea next year is likely to be postponed indefinitely.<\/p>\n

Carriers Already on Alert<\/h3>\n

Major liners had already signaled caution. France-based CMA CGM recently reversed plans to return its FAL1, FAL3, and MEX services to the Red Sea, citing geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, Maersk announced earlier this week that its ME11 and MECL services would reroute around southern Africa due to mounting security risks.<\/p>\n

The continued reliance on the Cape of Good Hope effectively absorbs an estimated 2.5 million TEU of global container capacity due to longer sailing distances, tightening fleet availability and keeping transit times elevated.<\/p>\n

A broad reopening of Red Sea routes would have released that capacity back into the market, potentially accelerating the decline in freight rates. That scenario now appears unlikely.<\/p>\n

Freight Rates: Softer, But Not Collapsing<\/h3>\n

Spot rates have already been trending downward in 2026. Average rates from China to the U.S. West Coast and East Coast have fallen 35% and 32%, respectively, since the start of the year. From China to North Europe and the Mediterranean \u2014 the lanes most affected by Red Sea diversions \u2014 rates have dropped 23% and 33%.<\/p>\n

However, Sand noted that without a large-scale return to Suez Canal transits, rates may soften more gradually in the second half of the year rather than collapsing outright.<\/p>\n

Despite recent declines, rates remain significantly above pre-crisis levels. Compared to December 1, 2023 \u2014 before widespread Red Sea disruptions \u2014 average spot rates from China to North Europe and the Mediterranean are still up 48% and 79%, respectively.<\/p>\n

Persian Gulf Faces Regional Disruption<\/h3>\n

While container services in the Persian Gulf have so far continued operating, the escalation raises fresh concerns. Sand indicated that vessels may now limit time spent in the region, with carriers potentially omitting calls at key hubs such as Port of Jebel Ali if security risks intensify.<\/p>\n

Spot rates from China to the UAE have already risen 5% since mid-February, reaching $1,572 per FEU \u2014 reflecting shipper anxiety over potential access constraints.<\/p>\n

If ports in the Persian Gulf become temporarily inaccessible, carriers could discharge cargo at alternative regional ports for onward trucking, creating localized congestion and supply chain disruption. However, the broader global impact would likely remain smaller than the systemic shock caused by prolonged Red Sea instability.<\/p>\n

Trade Routes Once Again in the Crosshairs<\/h3>\n

The latest escalation underscores the fragile intersection between geopolitics and global trade. With carriers once again on high alert, the prospect of normalized Red Sea transits \u2014 and the capacity relief they would bring \u2014 has been pushed further out of reach.<\/p>\n

For container markets already grappling with softening demand and a swelling orderbook, the renewed security threat adds another layer of unpredictability to an already volatile 2026 outlook.<\/p>\n

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<\/a><\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

… -scale return of container shipping<\/span> to the Red Sea … of crew, ships, and cargo<\/span>,\u00e2\u0080\u009d Sand said, warning that … potentially accelerating the decline in freight<\/span> rates. That scenario now … inaccessible, carriers could discharge cargo<\/span> at alternative regional ports for …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-107779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=107779"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107779\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=107779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=107779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=107779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}