Capacity left the industry throughout 2025. According to the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), there were more than 6,400 authority revocations in December alone, after reinstatements are added back in. Most of these were small carriers, but several acquisitions of larger carriers have been also in the news in the past few months.<\/p>\n
Low rates certainly play a part in carrier woes, as does FMCSA enforcement of English language proficiency (ELP) and non-domicile CDL rules.<\/p>\n
The supply side of the supply-demand equation is shrinking. The problem is that the demand side \u2014 the production and movement of available loads \u2014 hasn\u2019t been growing.<\/p>\n
\u201cDemand is still very uncertain. I mean, it\u2019s clearly not roaring back,\u201d said Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight and Analytics<\/a>. \u201cBut it\u2019s not tanking, either, and maybe that\u2019s the good news. The freight market has weathered the storm, and I think people have gotten used to the new normal.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cIf I could use one term to describe what this freight market looks like, it would be that a gradual recovery meets constrained supply,\u201d Croke said.<\/p>\n Jason Miller, interim chair of the Supply Chain Management Department at Michigan State University\u2019s Eli Broad College of Business<\/a>, says the industry will have a better sense of the 2026 market going into the year\u2019s second quarter.<\/p>\n \u201cFrom a supply standpoint, we probably have a little bit more capacity to exit, but not much more,\u201d Miller said. \u201cUnfortunately, there\u2019s not much in the demand side to really kick things off.\u201d<\/p>\n The trucking industry was encouraged by spot freight rate increases in December 2025 and January 2026, but much of the increase was attributed to weather.<\/p>\n One item the industry has watched closely is inflation and the interest rate adjustments used by the Federal Reserve to keep it in check.<\/p>\n \u201cIf they start to drive down interest rates, that\u2019s going to stimulate the housing market and mortgage rates,\u201d Croke said. \u201cAnd if 30-year mortgage rates 6% that\u2019s going to unlock the housing market in a way like we\u2019ve never seen.\u201d<\/p>\n Miller looks in another direction for help on mortgage rates.<\/p>\n \u201cThe 10-year treasury (bond yield rate) is what determines the 30-year mortgage rate,\u201d he said. \u201cIf the 10-year treasury doesn\u2019t come down, that means mortgage rates really aren\u2019t going to come down that much.\u201d<\/p>\n He suggests there\u2019s a more reliable metric to follow.<\/p>\n \u201cI tell people to watch single-family housing permits, not housing starts, because (the number of) permits issued isn\u2019t seasonally adjusted and reflects actual activity in the housing market,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n The Fed voted to hold the current interest rate range of 3.5% to 3.75% steady at its January meeting \u2014 and indicated that it is leaning towards doing the same at its next few meetings. In addition, a recent release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the estimated GDP (gross domestic product) for the third quarter of 2025 (July, August and September) to 4.4%. That\u2019s more than double the Fed\u2019s target goal of 2%.<\/p>\n Miller cautions that a solid GDP does not necessarily equate to a good trucking market.<\/p>\n \u201cThey\u2019re very disconnected metrics,\u201d he said. \u201cWe had good GDP readings in 2019, and we had a weak freight market. We had good GDP ratings in 2023, and we had an abysmal freight market. So don\u2019t think just because GDP is up that it means freight is doing a lot better.\u201d<\/p>\n Croke is keeping an eye on diesel fuel pricing as lower prices help carriers maximize revenues.<\/p>\n \u201cCash is king, and cash flow is going to be absolutely critical this quarter,\u201d he said. \u201cDiesel prices being lower for the small carriers have given them a little bit of tailwind, particularly the carriers who don\u2019t have access to the fuel surcharge.\u201d<\/p>\n But lower fuel prices, a stated goal of the Trump administration, come with a caution:<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s just no evidence that fracking is going to be up significantly, not with what\u2019s going on with oil prices right now,\u201d Miller said. \u201cThat (fracking) was what really drove things in 2013-14, but also, even in 2017-18 \u2014 fracking doubled between 2016 and 2018.\u201d<\/p>\n When barrel oil prices are on the rise, oil companies invest in drilling and fracking, pulling back on both activities when prices are down. Lower energy prices reduce business costs, but higher prices spur development and production.<\/p>\n With difficult trucking conditions continuing into 2026, what are the experts watching?<\/p>\n Croke sees opportunity in seasonality: \u201cBecause of efforts to remove non-domicile CDL holders, freight patterns are disrupted,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cEnforcement efforts in Texas and Florida have resulted in a shortage of available trucks, resulting in spot rate increases,\u201d he continued. \u201cSome drivers in California don\u2019t want to leave the state.\u201d<\/p>\n Croke points out that the agricultural produce season could present better revenue opportunities than usual this year.<\/p>\n Miller is keeping an eye on the numbers.<\/p>\n \u201cFirst would be the ISM (Institute for Supply Management)<\/a> Purchasing Manager Index, specifically the sub index for new orders,\u201d he said. \u201cHistorically, every major sort of expansionary cycle in trucking has been predicated on seeing that New Order metric get above 55 even towards sort of the 60 space.\u201d<\/p>\n As capacity continues to contract, a surge in manufacturing would increase demand for trucking and predicate a rise in rates, but it\u2019s not a likely scenario.<\/p>\n \u201cI keep asking, \u2018Where is the demand boost going to come from?\u2019\u201d Miller said. \u201cEven if spot rates stay \u2014 call it 10-ish percent \u2014 higher than where they were last year, it\u2019s a given that\u2019s going to draw some extra capacity back into the sector.\u201d<\/p>\n Or as Croke succinctly put it, \u201cGradual recovery meets constrained supply.\u201d<\/p>\n Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he\u2019s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n <\/a><\/strong> <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" … Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight<\/span> and Analytics. \u00e2\u0080\u009cBut it\u00e2\u0080\u0099 … term to describe what this freight<\/span> market looks like, it … industry was encouraged by spot freight<\/span> rate increases in December … remove non-domicile CDL holders, freight<\/span> patterns are disrupted,\u00e2\u0080\u009d he …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-102379","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","wpcat-1-id"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102379","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102379"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102379\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102379"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102379"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new7.shop\/zerocostfreehost\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102379"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}What is the new normal?<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Interest rates<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Diesel costs<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Factors to watch<\/strong><\/h4>\n
<\/a><\/div>\n