According to FreightWaves, the national dry van spot rate has reached a new cycle high. The rate, measured by a seven-day moving average that includes fuel, has risen to $2.89 per mile, marking the strongest level seen since 2022.
Read also: Global Container Freight Index Sees Minor Decline in Late February 2026
This increase includes a gain of $0.12 per mile in just the past week. Over recent months, spot rates have recovered approximately $0.50 to $0.60 per mile net of fuel from lower levels that were common in the prior two-year period. Key lanes and metrics show a year-over-year recovery of 20 to 25 percent, with volumes at multi-year highs.
The market shift is attributed to fundamental factors. A return of industrial demand, including stronger manufacturing signals and flatbed activity, is applying pressure on a reduced truckload supply. Carrier attrition over multiple years has left capacity thin. National tender rejection rates have recently remained around 13 to 14 percent, with the Midwest region above 18 percent.
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Activity on the West Coast is now adding significant pressure. A later Chinese New Year this year prolonged a slowdown, keeping Southern California conditions loose into early March. However, a rebound is now underway, with inbound containers surging and outbound tender rejections set to rise.
This dynamic is drawing capacity westward as carriers seek long-haul loads from ports. This movement of trucks from Midwest and Southeast corridors to capture West Coast freight is expected to further tighten conditions in interior and eastern markets. The Midwest’s existing strength and high rejection rates mean any capacity drain will intensify pressure.
The current cycle high reflects synchronized tightness from capacity constraints, resurgent industrial demand, and a delayed post-holiday import surge. Shippers are facing immediate strain, while carriers positioned for specific lanes are capturing gains. Conditions in eastern regions are set to tighten further as capacity reallocates.
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
