A rapid spike in diesel prices tied to global tensions is intensifying financial pressure on owner-operators already struggling through years of weak freight demand.
By yourNEWS Media Newsroom
Independent truck drivers across the United States say a sudden surge in diesel prices is threatening the survival of thousands of small trucking businesses, compounding a freight downturn that has persisted for years and pushed many carriers toward insolvency.
According to reporting by the Daily Caller News Foundation, diesel prices rose sharply following the launch of Operation Epic Fury on Feb. 28, when President Donald Trump ordered a military operation targeting Iranian leadership. The action triggered turmoil in energy markets and disruptions in shipping routes connected to the Strait of Hormuz.
In the week after the operation, diesel prices jumped more than 85 cents per gallon to roughly $4.59, according to fuel market data cited by GasBuddy. The increase struck an industry that had already been attempting to recover from a prolonged freight recession.
Jamie Hagen, president of Hell Bent Xpress and an independent truck driver, said the rapid escalation in fuel costs could eliminate many owner-operator businesses if prices remain elevated.
“For us to absorb this cost for much more than a few months means extinction,” Hagen told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “Fuel was the death blow to an already beaten up industry.”
The trucking industry’s difficulties extend beyond the latest fuel surge. During the COVID-19 lockdowns, a dramatic increase in online purchasing caused freight demand to surge as consumers ordered goods from home. Logistics industry analysis shows freight activity expanding rapidly as e-commerce grew significantly.
Once restrictions ended, however, consumer behavior shifted again. Spending moved away from physical goods toward services such as travel, entertainment, and restaurants. Federal economic data tracking consumer expenditures shows households increasingly redirecting spending toward services, reducing demand for trucked merchandise.
That shift left the industry with far more trucks on the road than freight available to move. Analysts tracking logistics markets report that the imbalance triggered waves of bankruptcies among carriers and freight brokers as companies struggled to remain solvent.
Major shipping corporations such as UPS and FedEx have the ability to offset increased expenses by adjusting rates or adding surcharges. Independent truckers often operate under short-term or spot market arrangements that do not allow quick adjustments to freight prices.
“Our members often work load to load and can’t simply raise their rates when fuel spikes the way their larger competitors can,” the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “With freight rates already low, a sharp increase in diesel can quickly eat up what little margin a small trucking business has left.”
Another challenge for the industry has been a surplus of drivers competing for fewer loads. Market research shows truckers have increasingly been chasing limited shipments as freight demand softened.
Demographic changes have also contributed to a larger labor pool. Industry data indicates the number of foreign-born drivers has expanded significantly over the past two decades. Federal labor statistics show foreign-born workers now make up nearly one-fifth of truck drivers in the United States, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data cited by industry analysis and policy groups.
Several fatal crashes involving non-citizen truck drivers have also drawn attention to workforce changes within the industry.
Hagen said the influx of new drivers has intensified competition for freight.
“The market got flooded with unqualified people. It’s an absolute mess out here with all different nationalities and almost none speaking English,” Hagen told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “And they’re willing to risk their lives for little reward. If I could pay my people very little, basically food money, then maybe our situation wouldn’t be so dire. As a driver myself I am not willing to do anyone that dirty though.”
Before the latest fuel spike, some industry observers believed immigration enforcement could eventually reduce the number of drivers competing for freight. Craig Fuller, chief executive of the supply chain intelligence company FreightWaves, argued that policy changes could help rebalance trucking capacity.
“New immigration restrictions could curb driver availability, trigger a massive capacity crunch, and pull the trucking industry out of The Great Freight Recession,” Fuller wrote. Data cited in the report showed spot rates falling from $3.53 per mile in early 2022 to $2.28 per mile by July 2025.
While policy shifts could potentially reduce oversupply of drivers, the industry now faces an immediate cost shock tied to fuel markets. Diesel prices had already remained elevated for several years, according to historical energy market data.
The most recent increase represents one of the steepest weekly jumps ever recorded. Market observers reported that diesel experienced the largest one-week increase in more than three decades, according to analysis of the record price surge.
“This is sort of the nail in the coffin,” owner-operator James Hagen told the Daily Caller News Foundation, referring to the sudden rise in fuel costs. “This raise in cost could slow the momentum we had going into 2026…after 3 years of downturns, Hell Bent Xpress doesn’t have a year 4 left in it. It is now or never. Henceforth why I don’t sleep much at night these days.”
Large carriers have attempted to offset higher fuel costs through pricing adjustments. Shipping companies including UPS and FedEx announced additional fuel surcharges alongside a 5.9 percent General Rate Increase.
Independent truckers say they rarely have the ability to immediately pass along higher fuel costs.
“I’m actively trying to renegotiate contracts with some verbiage to help with the situation. Typically, fuel doesn’t rise this fast. At a slower pace we could have eventually just raised the rate of our contracts, but this is bonkers,” Hagen told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “We don’t have contracts in place with a good fuel surcharge.”
Analysts say volatility in oil markets could persist as long as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, limiting the flow of crude to global markets.
Despite the surge in transportation costs, experts say consumers may see only limited increases in retail prices because freight expenses make up a relatively small share of the final cost of most goods.
“Because of economies of scale, consumers are protected somewhat from a rise in transportation costs,” trucking industry analyst Justin Martin told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “Even if shipping rates doubled, we’d only be looking at a 1-3% increase in the retail price of the item being moved.”
However, economists warn that higher fuel prices can still weaken freight demand if consumers spend more money filling their own vehicles.
“When consumers pay more at the pump, they have less money to spend on other goods that motor carriers haul for their customers. So, it can hurt freight volumes,” American Trucking Association Chief Economist Bob Costello told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Gasoline prices for drivers have also climbed, with the national average reaching $3.59 per gallon — an increase of more than 60 cents — according to AAA.
For truckers who have endured several consecutive years of falling freight rates and rising operating expenses, the recent diesel surge represents another obstacle that could determine whether many independent companies remain in business.
“I’ve been in this industry my entire life and I’ve never experienced anything like this,” Hagen told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “I’ve seen small slow downs and reduced demand but never a three year stretch before. I’m known for being a very efficient operator and this has out paced anything I was prepared for.”
