As the hostilities in the Middle East show no signs of abating, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a halt, even after a Friday announcement that the U.S. established a $20 billion maritime reinsurance plan in the Gulf region.
The strait recorded only two total crossings on Sunday, with both being Iranian-flagged ships headed outbound, according to data from maritime intelligence provider Windward. That represented a 66 percent dip in activity below the seven-day moving average from March 1-7.
Amid Iranian threats on vessels moving through the strait, the lack of movement from oil tankers over the weekend sent energy markets in a fury, as 20 percent of all oil consumed worldwide passes through the conduit.
Crude oil futures surged past $115 per barrel in the early hours of Monday, marking the first time since June 2022 that oil prices reached north of $100. Prices since retreated back under $95 per barrel by 1 p.m.
The restoration of the energy trade through the Hormuz remains a top priority of the Trump administration, but its reinsurance program also aims to assist the shipping industry at large. Under the plan, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) would insure losses up to approximately $20 billion on a rolling basis.
Insurance coverage will initially focus on protecting cargo and the vessels’ hulls and machinery. The DFC and Treasury Department said they are closely cooperating with U.S. Central Command to implement the plan, with the government investment arm identifying “preferred American insurance partners” for the program.
The Strait of Hormuz hasn’t been the only area where shipping has seen a slowdown.
The Suez Canal, which itself was an area commercial vessel had sought to avoid for two years due to conflict-related security risks, saw total crossings fall to 31 on Sunday, according to Windward. That marks a 17 percent drop below the prior seven-day average.
In line with the decline at the Suez, 89 sailings were recorded around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, exceeding the seven-day average.
“We’re seeing faster portfolio adjustments than we did for the Red Sea crisis,” observed Destine Ozuygur, senior market analyst at Xeneta, in a Monday update on LinkedIn. “In just over a week carriers have gone from suspending upcoming bookings to announcing temporary suspensions on services like the Gemini Cooperation’s ME11 and FM1, representing ~26,000 TEU of combined weekly capacity.”
As vessels avoid the region, congestion has hit ports both directly and indirectly impacted by the conflict.
There are currently 18 container vessels waiting outside India’s Nhava Sheva Port and another 40 actively steaming toward the gateway, according to data from Xeneta. Twenty-nine ships are docked at the port, with average wait to berth coming in at 1.9 days. The port has sustained congestion levels above 60 percent since last Tuesday, according to Ozuygur. Xeneta’s congestion ratio calculates the number of ships waiting to call at the port divided by the total number of vessels already docked.
On March 1, Nhava Sheva’s congestion levels were just 10 percent.
Congestion in major transshipment ports Colombo and Singapore is less severe but still between 35 percent and 50 percent since March 1.
As of Monday, Colombo has a 42.9 percent congestion rate, with 21 ships in the port and nine waiting. Fifty-nine ships are headed toward the port. And 97 vessels are currently docked in Singapore, which has a 43.3 percent congestion rate. Forty-two ships are awaiting to dock, with 265 vessels en route to the port.
Delays continue to increase across the Persian Gulf’s key transshipment maritime hubs.
The Port of Jebel Ali is experiencing 10 transshipment delays as of Monday morning, up from three vessels delayed the day prior, according to Windward. And Dammam Port in Saudi Arabia has seen five transshipment delays, up from one on Sunday.
Kuwait’s Shuwaikh Port saw four late departures, while Iraq’s Umm Qasr Port had two transshipment delays, with both gateways seeing zero cases on Sunday.
Air cargo has also continued to feel impacts of the war in Iran, especially on the back of the increased oil prices.
On Friday, Lufthansa’s chief financial officer, Till Striechert, said the airline has seen rising cargo yields of 5 percent worldwide and 35 percent in the Middle East and Asia in the days prior to the earnings call.
“Even a further yield uplift from these markets is conceivable,” Striechert said, ahead of the weekend’s “Longer term, we might also see more shifts from sea freight to air freight when things are time critical.”
Lufthansa, which is still suspending flights to and from Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Dammam until March 15, has seen an acceleration in demand for bookings for routes including Asia and Africa as operations of competitors like Emirates and Qatar Airways largely remain suspended throughout the area.
Due to the spare aircraft available from the flight cancellations at these airports, along with a lighter winter schedule, the company has announced extra flights to markets including Bangkok, Singapore, Shanghai, Cape Town and Delhi.
