The country’s ports have not yet experienced a meaningful increase in vessel traffic despite escalating tensions in the Middle East and shipping companies diverting routes away from the Strait of Hormuz.
Transnet National Ports Authority (TNPA) said on Tuesday that while global carriers are reassessing routes after the weekend’s escalation involving the US, Israel and Iran, there has been no notable spike in additional berthing requests at local ports, including Cape Town.
Several major shipping lines have suspended or limited transits through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to global markets amid heightened security risks.
The strait carries roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply, with China, India, Japan and South Korea accounting for nearly 70% of shipments. About 30% of Europe’s jet fuel supply originates from or transits through the waterway.
While vessels have begun diverting around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Gulf, TNPA said the rerouting has not yet translated into a surge in port calls along South Africa’s coastline. The authority added that it remains operationally ready should volumes increase.
The crisis began on February 28 after joint US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, prompting Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard to prohibit vessel passage through the strait. Tanker traffic has since dropped to near zero, with more than 150 ships anchored outside the waterway.
Major shipping companies, including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd’s has suspended all operations through the strait and rerouted vessels around the southern tip of Africa.
“Until further [notice] , all sailings on the IMX service will be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. The safety of our crews, vessels and customers’ cargo remains our key priority, and we will continue to monitor the situation closely and take all needed actions,” Hapag-Lloyd said in a notice to customers.
Ocean Network Express CEO Jeremy Nixon said about 750 vessels are backed up due to the closure, including about 100 container ships, representing roughly 10% of the global container fleet.
In response to a Business Day inquiry about the Port of Cape Town’s readiness, TNPA said its ports remain open for business to handle the safe transit of diverted vessels on request, subject to available capacity. TNPA added it had not yet observed any increase in demand and had not received berthing requests from shipping lines.
“Presently, TNPA has not observed any immediate increase in demand to definitively determine the number of vessels anticipated for diversion from the Suez Canal route to the Port of Cape Town (Cape of Good Hope). TNPA has not received an indication of additional berthing requests from any shipping lines and/or other stakeholders,” TNPA said.
“TNPA, however, runs a complementary port system that enables the optimisation of specialised marine services during high-demand periods. This includes the redeployment of marine resources and fleet such as tugboats, workboats and pilot boats to enhance operational efficiencies.”
TNPA said it operates a system that allows for the redeployment of tugboats, workboats and pilot boats during high-demand periods and that it would continue to monitor the situation and engage with shipping lines, terminal operators and maritime authorities.
“Should such a need arise as a result of the anticipated vessel diversions, TNPA will continue to monitor the situation and engage with its various industry stakeholders, such as shipping lines, terminal operators and relevant maritime authorities, to ensure seamless utilisation of available port capacity to respond to any service requests.”
The authority did not provide figures on berth occupancy, crane productivity or container yard capacity at the Port of Cape Town.
Major shipping lines rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope face transit times up to two weeks longer on Asia-to-Europe voyages with upward pressure on freight rates as a result. About 170 containerships with a combined capacity of about 450,000 teu (twenty-foot equivalent unit) are now inside the strait and facing restrictions on exiting.
Mark Lacey, head of thematic equities at Schroders, said the weekend’s developments highlight how quickly energy markets can become unbalanced in a politically charged environment. He noted while broader equity and fixed-income markets may experience weakness amid a risk-off shift, the energy sector entered the latest flare-up from a relatively firm footing.
“Many analysts are also warning that a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could push oil prices significantly above $100 a barrel, potentially sparking a 1970s-style energy shock. OPEC+ has agreed in principle to increase oil production by over 200,000 barrels a day in April, as key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia respond to the conflict, but this does not take into consideration any supply route disruption,” Lacey said.
“But coupled with the very low reserve lives of some major non-Opec producers, any actual output boost from the Opec+ members will be constrained by the group’s limited spare production capacity. In essence, the global oil market has been stripped of its usual shock absorbers, risking severe price spikes if supplies are disrupted.”
