As expected, the first month of 2026 showed a drop in cargo numbers at the Port of Los Angeles compared to this time a year ago.
The numbers were reported Tuesday, Feb. 17, at the monthly virtual news briefing held by Port of L.A. Executive Director Gene Seroka, who announced processed cargo containers hit about 812,000 — a 12% drop from January 2025.
Cargo movements have been widely expected to flatten during the first six months of the new year following 2025, when importers rushed to move additional cargo ahead of tariffs.
Earlier this month, the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates projected that import volume at the nation’s major container ports was expected to see “a significant year-over-year decline during the first half of 2026,” citing the impact of tariffs.
As for the Port of L.A., several factors were at play in the most recent statistics, Seroka said.
“First, we’re comparing January to 2025 elevated numbers when importers were scrambling to get cargo in ahead of tariffs,” Seroka said. “Second, inventories remain slightly higher, reflecting the earlier cargo surge and a more cautious restocking pace.”
And finally, he added, “U.S. trade policy continues to keep everyone on edge.”
American consumers, though, also have “shown remarkable resilience,” Seroka said, with purchase orders going out three months in advance to Asia appearing stable, which the port leader called “a good sign.”
Seroka’s guest this month was economist Chad Brown, a leading authority on tariffs and trade policy impacts, who said cargo this year faces, in a word, “uncertainty.”
Tariffs under the current administration have been unpredictable, he said, and they are “something that even economists are trying to figure out.”
Through the first eight to nine months of tariffs, Brown said, “almost 100% of the tariffs are being paid for by ‘somebody’ in the U.S.,” though he added that doesn’t always filter through directly to sticker prices being paid by consumers.
Other ramifications could be fewer goods coming in, for example, he said.
Addressing the most recent January cargo numbers, Seroka said the month “held no surprises.” With the Lunar New Year now arriving, Seroka said, he does anticipate a slowdown in March, which is typical.
But despite a projected first quarter decline, Seroka said, he didn’t “see cargo dropping off a cliff after that. I don’t see a dire situation.”
The future of tariffs in 2026, however, remains a wild card.
While some of the tariffs make sense, said Brown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of Economics, others “don’t make a whole lot of economic sense” and generate uncertainty for businesses.
“With tariffs still a matter of debate in the courts and in Congress, their effect on imports is being clearly seen,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, also said in a Feb. 9 news release. “The situation underscores the need for clear and predictable trade policies that support supply chain certainty and reliability, business planning and consumer affordability. Tariffs are a tax on U.S. businesses that is ultimately paid by consumers through higher prices.”
Asked about projections for the second half of 2026, Seroka said it isn’t yet clear.
But, he added, he does anticipate a somewhat traditional cargo year in 2026, with the usual seasonal peaks and valleys.
January 2026 loaded imports at the Port of L.A. came in at 421,594 twenty-foot equivalent units, 13% less than last year. Loaded exports landed at 104,297 TEUs, an 8% drop compared to 2025. The port also handled 286,110 empty container units, 12% less than last year.
Current and historical cargo data, including fiscal year-end totals, are available at the port’s website.
