Photo: © Giovanni Gagliardi
Air cargo capacity is set to grow faster than demand in 2026 – and much of that new lift will be concentrated in the Gulf.
That is the assessment of Aevean’s Marco Bloemen, who said the industry continued to focus on aircraft orders, but the more important metric was what actually gets delivered.
“In 2019, manufacturers delivered around 340 widebody passenger aircraft,” he said. “Last year, that number was roughly half.”
In 2024, widebody output collapsed to 167 passenger aircraft and around 50 freighters, far below pre-pandemic numbers. Narrowbody production, meanwhile, surged to more than 1,100 aircraft, up from around 800 in 2019.
“They are building narrowbodies, which is fine for the passenger market,” Mr Bloemen said, “but narrowbodies don’t add long-haul cargo capacity.”
By mid-February, just 13 widebody aircraft had been delivered: five freighters and eight passenger aircraft, and Mr Bloeman added: “So far, deliveries look very similar to what we saw last year.”
Freighter aircraft remain the main source of incremental cargo capacity.
“We forecasted 35 freighter deliveries last year, and that’s exactly what happened,” Mr Bloemen said. “For 2026, we expect something similar.”
Those aircraft accounted for most of last year’s growth in dedicated cargo capacity.
However, longer-term the picture could change: regulatory changes affecting Boeing’s 777 programme could halt production beyond 2027 unless exemptions are granted.
“If the rules do not change, there will be no Boeing 777s being delivered in 2027 and 2028,” Mr Bloemen warned. “For 2026, the aircraft already ordered will still be delivered – but watch that space.”
Perhaps the most striking data point concerns geography.
Source: Aevean
“If you add up the capacity we expect to be delivered in 2026, roughly half of it is going to Middle East operators,” Mr Bloemen said.
Based on Aevean’s projections, some 1.7m tonnes of new widebody capacity is destined for the Middle East and South Asia, compared with roughly 0.7m tonnes for Europe and 0.6m tonnes for North America.
“That’s a serious number,” he said. “Half of all new capacity going into one region.”
Source: Aevean
And this shift is already visible in route data. Year-to-date international capacity is running about 10% above last year, though Mr Bloemen cautioned that Chinese New Year timing distorted the comparison.
Even so, structural trends are clear: capacity between Asia and the Gulf is up roughly 22%, Asia-Europe around 20%, while China-North America capacity has declined slightly.
Source: Aevean
“We’re basically seeing capacity out of China and Hong Kong being deployed to the Middle East and to Europe,” he said. “Capacity follows the business.”
Mr Bloemen said much of the new lift originated in Asia, particularly China and Hong Kong, creating backhaul pressure, but, he added: “Those aircraft also have to fly back.”
On strong outbound lanes, additional capacity will likely be absorbed. The issue lies in the return legs, he said.
“The moment you add more capacity out of China and Hong Kong, the more difficult it becomes to fill it on the way back,” he said.
But he does not expect a collapse in volumes.
“It won’t be a bad year in terms of tonnes,” he said. “On the strong legs, they will fill it.”
But financially, the picture is less certain.
“You have to look at pricing and cost. Fuel will matter. That’s a different story,” he added.
Mr Bloemen believes the key trends from 2025 will continue into 2026: ecommerce shifts, data centre traffic, tariff effects and aircraft delivery constraints.
“The data centre business is not over. Ecommerce is not over. Aircraft deliveries will still happen,” he said. “All those trends continue.”
But with capacity expanding faster than demand, the centre of gravity is shifting.
“It’s not demand that will define 2026,” Mr Bloemen said. “It’s capacity – and where it’s being added.”
And right now, much of that addition is flowing through the Gulf.
Next, Aevean on demand for the year
