On time cargo arrivals collapsed to just 6.7% in the period between February and April 2025, with 63.9% of shipments delayed by more than three days, according to data released by online monitoring platform Beacon.
Using data from its AI enhanced automated systems Beacon tracked and analysed 27,613 ocean freight shipments across 2024 and 2025, monitoring port-to-port arrival times of vessels, with on-time being defined as an arrival within 12 hours of the proforma schedule time, while arrivals of three or more days late are considered very late.
Beacon’s data reveals a maritime network that is “under sustained and intensifying pressure,” exacerbated by an increase in cancelled sailings, which for Beacon’s purposes are considered delays in deliveries.
“From a shipper’s perspective, it doesn’t matter why the container is late, only that it didn’t arrive when the carrier said it would,” explained Fraser Robinson, CEO at Beacon.
Beacon’s data shows a sharp deterioration in reliability, with on time deliveries falling from 36% in 2024 to 13.9% last year.
Moreover, the proportion of shipments arriving very late rose from 18.1% to 47.4% year-on-year “underscoring the growing challenge faced by global supply chains”, said Beacon.
Suez diversions and Trump’s tariffs
The Suez diversions are one reason for the dramatic decline in reliability, but the timing of the collapse, February to April, also coincides with the major uncertainties experienced when the Trump administration introduced and then paused tariffs on a wide range of countries.
“Whether these factors persist into 2026 depends on geopolitical stability and infrastructure investment,” explained Robinson, who added that the Red Sea diversions are continuing while port capacity is the same.
“What we can say is that supply chain planners using 2024 reliability assumptions for 2026 planning are likely setting themselves up for the same problems we saw in 2025,” claimed Robinson.
These challenges are affecting shippers who operate just-in-time supply chains who have responded in a number of ways, according to Robinson.
Safety stock and longer lead times
In the first instance shippers have increased their “safety stock”, as a buffer against unreliable ship arrivals, “These ties up working capital but provides insurance against delays,” said Robinson.
Planning with longer lead times is an additional buffer to expected arrival times, that will reduce flexibility, but it can improve reliability to end customers.
The most strategic move, however, argues Robinson, “Is that shippers are investing in better visibility infrastructure so they can spot delays earlier and have more time to respond.”
Earlier knowledge of delays allows more time for mitigation options to be implemented before the situation becomes a crisis that requires, expensive, emergency air freight.
“None of these are ideal solutions. They all have costs. But when you can’t rely on carriers delivering on schedule, you have to build resilience somewhere else in the system,” commented Robinson.
With 47% of shipments arriving more than three days late companies are forced to adapt by building in buffers and emergency responses, “The system works, but it’s more expensive and less efficient than it would be with better reliability,” said Robinson.
Beacon is now analysing data to see if the 2025 reliability becomes the standard or “whether competitive pressure pushes carriers and infrastructure providers to invest in improving schedule integrity”.
Lack of choice
Robinson points out: “Right now, shippers don’t have much choice. Carrier options are limited and alternatives aren’t meaningfully better.”
Beacon believes that in 2025 there were “fewer unique routes,” as freight was concentrated into high-volume trade lanes, if this trend continues then schedule reliability will continue to be a challenge.
The first quarter of this year is critical, if reliability returns to 2024 levels, then the probability is that 2025 issues were an anomaly, however, “If Q1 2026 mirrors Q1 2025 (12.5% on time), that’s a strong signal this is the new normal.”
Shippers and supply chain managers currently lack the independent data that will help them understand carrier and forwarder performance in real time.
“Without systematic tracking across their entire shipment portfolio, supply chain teams cannot identify reliability patterns, benchmark providers, or hold carriers accountable for ETA accuracy. Instead, they rely on anecdotal experience and provider-supplied performance metrics,” claimed Robinson.
According to Beacon’s CEO, the company supplies consolidated data across air and ocean supply chains bring visibility and “actual performance, not just carrier promises”.
Beacon believes that the type of visibility that it provides offers shippers with concrete evidence to bring to contract negotiations by allowing them to show the disparity between shipping lines’ performance.
“The real power isn’t forcing carriers to improve overnight – it’s removing the information asymmetry. Right now, carriers have complete visibility into their performance and shippers don’t. Independent data evens that playing field, even if it doesn’t immediately change carrier behaviour,” concluded Robinson.
