Tightening truck capacity pushed freight rates higher in the fourth quarter of 2025, even as shipment volumes remained soft, according to the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index. National shipment volumes rose 1.5% quarter over quarter (Q/Q), while shipper spending increased 4.6%, reaching its highest level since early 2024.
U.S. Bank reported that shipper spending increased for the third consecutive quarter as capacity continued to exit the market through fleet closures and carrier downsizing. “The capacity story is the defining theme of Q4,” said Bobby Holland, director of freight business analytics at U.S. Bank. “Shippers paid significantly more to move slightly more freight, clear evidence that available truck capacity continues to tighten.”
Volumes remain soft, spending climbs
On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, national shipment volumes declined 4.9% compared with the fourth quarter of 2024. While this marked the fifteenth consecutive quarter of Y/Y decline, U.S. Bank noted it was the smallest contraction since the second quarter of 2022.
For full-year 2025, freight volumes declined 9.9% from 2024 levels, less than half the 20.4% annual decline recorded in 2024. Shipper spending rose 5.2% Y/Y in the fourth quarter, marking the first Y/Y increase in three years.
Over the past three quarters, spending increased 7.9%, while shipment volumes rose just 1.0%, underscoring ongoing rate pressure. U.S. Bank noted that the spending increase was not driven by fuel costs, as average diesel prices were 5.2 cents per gallon lower than in the third quarter, according to U.S. Department of Energy data.
Regional results highlight capacity pressure
Regional shipment performance was mixed, but spending increased sequentially across all five regions tracked by the Index. The Southwest, Midwest, and Northeast posted Q/Q shipment gains ranging from 3.5% to 5.4%, while shipments declined in the West and Southeast.
Four of five regions recorded Y/Y spending increases, signaling broad-based capacity tightening. “The capacity adjustments we’re seeing across the industry are a natural response to these prolonged demand headwinds,” said Bob Costello, senior vice president and chief economist at the American Trucking Associations. “Manufacturing, construction, and consumer spending all showed strain in Q4.”
Freight Payment Index data snapshot
National Shipments: Q/Q: +1.5%; Y/Y: −4.9%
Spending: Q/Q: +4.6%; Y/Y: +5.2%
West Shipments: Q/Q: −1.3%; Y/Y: +5.4%
Spending: Q/Q: +2.6%; Y/Y: +9.4%
Southwest Shipments: Q/Q: +5.4%; Y/Y: −25.4%
Spending: Q/Q: +12.6%; Y/Y: +16.8%
Midwest Shipments: Q/Q: +3.5%; Y/Y: −3.3%
Spending: Q/Q: +5.0%; Y/Y: +0.1%
Northeast Shipments: Q/Q: +4.2%; Y/Y: +12.1%
Spending: Q/Q: +5.5%; Y/Y: +16.7%
Southeast Shipments: Q/Q: −2.4%; Y/Y: −5.9%
Spending: Q/Q: +0.7%; Y/Y: −1.3%
