Supply chain disruption and geopolitical risk drive business interruption concerns
Dropping from first to second place this year for transportation and logistics risk experts is business interruption (27%), which includes supply chain disruptions. A shift toward protectionist trade policies and tariff wars brought uncertainty to the world economy in 2025. It was also a year of regional conflicts in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine; border disputes between India/Pakistan and Thailand/Cambodia; and civil wars in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Myanmar—a trend which continues in 2026 with the U.S. intervention in Venezuela.
Global supply chain paralysis due to a geopolitical conflict ranks as the most plausible “black swan” scenario likely to materialize in the next five years (51%), according to Allianz Risk Barometer global respondents. Global trade and supply chains are being reshaped in a world divided by geopolitics, protectionism, and the effects of climate change.
When asked how their company is addressing shifting trade and investment patterns, including the impact of tariffs, half of the Allianz Risk Barometer global respondents say they are exploring new markets and products. Almost half (49%) are renegotiating and diversifying supply chains, while a similar number say they are streamlining operations to cut costs and/or investing in advanced analytics and supply chain management software. Just over a third (35%) are exploring nearshoring and evaluating domestic manufacturing options, while 32% are looking to improve inventory management, including storing inventory in Free Trade Zones.
Despite the lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical shocks such as the war in Ukraine, many companies are not confident in the resilience of their supply chains; only 3% of respondents rate their supply chains as “very resilient” in this year’s Allianz Risk Barometer. As risk becomes more complex and interconnected, all businesses, including fleet owners, will need to take a more holistic approach to resilience.
Cargo theft risk grows as organized crime targets high-value freight
Tied for second place as a top risk for transportation and logistics businesses at 27% is theft. This is no surprise for industry executives, as Allianz Commercial’s Safety and Shipping Review 2025 noted that cargo theft claims continue to rise as organized criminal gangs repeatedly target high-value and consumable goods.
According to Verisk CargoNet, cargo theft activity in North America remained high in 2025: Estimated losses surged 60% to nearly $725 million, while confirmed cargo theft incidents increased 18% with 3,594 supply chain crime events across the United States and Canada last year.
Food and household goods remain the top targeted type of commodity for theft, though thieves are also going after cosmetics, vitamins and supplements, consumer electronics, copper products, and cryptocurrency mining hardware.
The criminals behind cargo theft are increasingly sophisticated. In the past, cargo theft was more opportunistic. Now we see criminal organizations using better intelligence and specifically targeting certain industries and shipments.
Costly cargo theft claims often have a common root cause: lax adherence to security and risk management controls. In many cases, a company’s own risk management policies have not been adhered to, as unauthorized stops and overnight stays have occurred, or cargo values per transport have exceeded policy limits.
Risk management policies and procedures are essential, but they need to be implemented and complied with in order to be effective. A proactive approach to understanding and addressing cargo theft is crucial to safeguarding shipments. Insurance carriers can provide risk mitigation strategies to support clients in this area.
