Global container shipping lines are bracing for a challenging 2026, as the potential reopening of the Red Sea trade corridor threatens to push freight rates lower and deepen an already growing vessel oversupply.
Read also: Container Shipping Returns to Red Sea as 2026 Contract Talks Start
Major carriers — including A.P. Moller-Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, Nippon Yusen (NYK Line), Orient Overseas International, and Cosco Shipping Holdings — are widely expected to report weaker earnings following a turbulent 2025 shaped by tariff disputes and softening cargo demand.
Analysts warn that a full return to Red Sea transits could accelerate structural imbalances in the market.
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“A resumption of traffic through the Red Sea would exacerbate existing structural overcapacity issues,” Bank of America analysts said, pointing to the rapid expansion of global fleet capacity.
New vessel deliveries are projected to drive a 36% surge in container shipping capacity between 2023 and 2027, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. At the same time, demand is forecast to contract by 1.1% in 2026 if carriers fully resume Red Sea routes — a combination likely to pressure freight pricing.
Rates are already trending downward. The Drewry World Container Index fell 4.7% to $2,107 per 40-foot container in the week ending Jan. 29, underscoring weakening market conditions.
While a full reopening is not yet guaranteed, prospects have improved. Maersk recently completed two successful Red Sea voyages — the first since Yemen’s Houthi militants began attacking commercial vessels in 2023 — signaling a tentative return to the shorter Suez routing.
Earlier projections from HSBC suggested disruptions lasting into mid-2026 would limit rate declines to between 9% and 16%. However, Maersk’s renewed transits have raised the possibility of a faster normalization, prompting HSBC to warn of an additional 10% rate slide that could push Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd into losses.
A sudden shift back to the Suez route could also trigger short-term volatility. Analysts say an influx of vessels into European ports may initially create congestion, temporarily supporting freight rates. Seasonal inventory restocking in the first half of 2026 could provide another brief buffer.
Still, the longer-term outlook remains weak. Bank of America expects Maersk to issue soft profit guidance for 2026 and potentially cut share buybacks by half. Consensus forecasts indicate the Danish carrier could post its first annual loss since 2017.
Carriers remain cautious about rerouting networks too quickly, given the unpredictable security environment.
“Cargo owners are wary of putting valuable goods at risk and are now accustomed to longer transit times, while ports may struggle to handle a sudden surge of vessel arrivals,” said Drewry Shipping Consultants’ Arya Anshuman and Simon Heaney.
The volatility is already evident. While Maersk has resumed limited sailings, CMA CGM reversed plans to redeploy services through the Red Sea after briefly returning three loops — a move analysts say highlights the fragility of the security situation.
For Asian carriers, the Red Sea remains the key swing factor for 2026 performance — even more than tariffs — amid a fragile U.S.–China trade truce and ongoing supply chain realignment.
Japanese operator Nippon Yusen is expected to face mounting profitability pressure from excess capacity and tariff uncertainty after missing third-quarter earnings estimates. Bloomberg Intelligence projects further deterioration in its container segment as rates weaken and volumes soften.
Ocean Network Express (ONE) — jointly owned by NYK, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha — recently posted an $88 million net loss for its fiscal third quarter, citing fleet expansion and sluggish Asia–Europe and Transpacific cargo flows. The carrier expects most vessels to continue diverting via the Cape of Good Hope for now, supporting only a modest near-term rate uptick.
Despite the global downturn, Asian liners may hold a relative margin advantage over European peers. Stronger intra-Asia demand and firmer regional spot rates are providing some insulation from geopolitical shocks.
“Intra-Asia trade benefits from greater operational stability, as it is less exposed to tariffs and Red Sea security risks that continue to disrupt major East-West routes,” Drewry analysts noted.
As 2026 unfolds, the pace and stability of any Red Sea reopening will remain the industry’s biggest wildcard — with the power to reshape capacity balances, freight pricing, and carrier profitability worldwide.
