Verisk CargoNet reported that U.S. and Canadian cargo theft losses surged in 2025 despite overall incident volume remaining largely unchanged, reflecting a shift by organized criminal groups toward higher-value freight and new geographic targets.
According to CargoNet’s annual analysis, estimated losses reached nearly $725 million in 2025, a 60% increase from 2024. The average value per theft rose 36% to $273,990, up from $202,364 a year earlier.
Incident Volume Flat, Theft Activity Increases
CargoNet recorded 3,594 supply chain crime incidents in 2025, essentially flat compared with 3,607 incidents in 2024. However, confirmed cargo theft cases increased 18% Y/Y, rising from 2,243 incidents to 2,646.
The data indicates that criminal activity became more selective, with fewer low-value thefts and a greater focus on shipments offering larger financial returns.
Geographic Shifts Expand Risk Beyond Traditional Hotspots
California remained the most impacted state with 1,218 incidents, but theft activity shifted within the state. CargoNet reported an 11% decline in Los Angeles County, while incidents increased sharply in historically lower-risk regions such as Kern County, which rose 82%, and San Joaquin County, which increased 44%.
Outside California, several states experienced notable increases, including New Jersey at 50%, Indiana at 30%, and Pennsylvania at 24%, signaling a broader geographic dispersion of cargo theft risk.
High-Value Commodities Drive Loss Growth
Food and beverage products saw the largest increase in theft volume, with 708 incidents in 2025, a 47% increase from 2024. Meat, seafood, and tree nuts were among the most frequently targeted commodities, with regional variation in theft patterns.
Metal theft rose 77% Y/Y, driven largely by sustained demand for copper products. CargoNet also reported a decline in theft of consumer electronics such as televisions and personal computers, while enterprise computing hardware and cryptocurrency mining equipment emerged as high-priority targets.
Vehicle-related products, including tires, auto parts, motor oils, and engines, continued to attract organized theft, particularly shipments destined for domestic vehicle assembly plants.
Organized Groups Grow More Strategic
“Criminal enterprises are becoming more selective and sophisticated, targeting extremely high-value shipments rather than relying on opportunistic theft,” said Keith Lewis, vice president of operations at Verisk CargoNet. “This strategic shift explains how losses can rise 60% even as overall incident volume holds steady.”
Outlook for 2026
CargoNet expects organized theft groups to continue targeting high-value technology products in 2026, including RAM modules, storage drives, and enterprise computing equipment. Theft-by-deception schemes are also expected to expand, particularly those involving shipment misdirection using legitimate carrier credentials.
CargoNet is monitoring developments related to nondomiciled CDL enforcement, noting that increased scrutiny could alter carrier availability and create new vulnerabilities for fraudulent carrier activity.
Methodology Note
All comparisons reflect CargoNet’s delayed reporting adjustment. Data for 2025 includes updates through Jan. 12, 2026, while 2024 data includes updates through Jan. 12, 2025.
